Every quarter, analysts lower their estimates. It’s the ritual. Set the bar, lower the bar, beat the bar. Since March 31, Q2 S&P 500 earnings estimates have typically fallen 2.0% on average over the past five years.
This quarter, they went up 2.7%.
since March 31
5-year average
That 4.7-point gap is the widest positive drift since Q4 2021. Sixty-two companies issued positive EPS guidance — against a five-year average of 44. The Q2 year-over-year growth rate climbed from +18% in early April to +21.9% today. Analysts aren’t just maintaining — they’re raising.
Where the drift is
| Sector | Direction | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | ▲ | AI capex → revenue conversion. ORCL, AVGO, ADBE all beat. JBL raised AI revenue to $13.6B. |
| Energy | ▲ | Pre-Iran deal. Brent was $118. Now $83. These revisions are stale. |
| Materials | ▲ | Infrastructure spending + commodity pricing power in shortage. |
| Utilities | ▲ | AI data center power demand + rate-regulated stability. |
| Consumer Discretionary | ▼ | KMX beat EPS by 39% today. Stock fell 8.8%. |
| Consumer Staples | ▼ | Volume pressure. Pricing power fading. |
| Transportation | ▼ | Fuel costs + Hormuz rerouting costs, even post-deal. |
| Autos | ▼ | Semiconductor repricing. Honda flagged ¥60M hit from Nexperia. |
| Medical | ▼ | Utilization headwinds. GLP-1 cost absorption. |
The drift is bifurcated. Tech and AI-adjacent sectors are being revised up. Consumer-facing and physical-economy sectors are being revised down. The aggregate +2.7% masks a two-speed market.
Then the Fed walked in
At 2 PM today, the FOMC delivered its first decision under Chair Warsh. The headline — hold at 3.50–3.75% — was expected. Everything else was not.
The S&P 500 fell 1.2% to 7,420. The 2-year yield jumped 16 basis points to 4.22%. Markets had priced a hawkish hold. They got a hawkish hold plus the removal of every anchor they relied on.
The collision
The estimates say Q2 earnings will grow 21.9% year-over-year. The Fed says inflation is running 3.6% and half the committee wants to hike. These two trajectories are walking in opposite directions.
If PCE stays at 3.6%, input costs compress margins. If the Fed hikes, multiples compress. If Warsh means it about no forward guidance, the uncertainty premium widens — and the beat-and-sell pattern that’s dominated this cycle gets worse.
CarMax showed you what that looks like today. Beat EPS by 39%. Beat revenue by 7.4%. Stock fell 8.8%. The margin compression story in the guidance — roughly $300/unit decline — mattered more than the quarter’s outperformance. The market is looking forward, and forward is where the Fed just put a wall.
What’s stale
Energy estimates were revised up during the Hormuz blockade when Brent was $118. The Iran deal dropped crude to $83 — a 30% decline. Those upward revisions haven’t been marked down yet. When they are, the aggregate +2.7% drift will shrink.
The BOJ hiked to 1.0% yesterday — highest since 1995. Yen carry unwind pressure adds another headwind for high-duration names. ADBE, already trading at a 52-week low with no CEO and no CFO, is the poster child for rate-sensitive vulnerability.
What’s real
Jabil reported this morning: $3.16 EPS vs $3.11 estimate, revenue $8.75B vs $8.64B. The beat was modest. The signal was in the guidance — AI-related revenue raised to $13.6 billion for the fiscal year, up $500 million from March and representing 50% year-over-year growth. JBL sits downstream of AVGO and ORCL. Their AI revenue raise confirms the capex dollars are flowing through the supply chain. Full-year raised to $35B revenue, $12.70 EPS.
The tech drift is real. The consumer drift is real. The question is which one dominates the aggregate when rates go the wrong direction.
ACN Thursday
Accenture reports before the bell Thursday — $3.70 EPS estimate, $18.8B revenue. AI bookings hit $2.2B last quarter, doubling year-over-year. But bookings aren’t revenue. The market is asking whether enterprise AI spend converts into recurring revenue or stays in the consulting pipeline. SPCX just paid $60B for Cursor at 15x revenue, validating AI tool pricing. If ACN shows conversion, the tech drift accelerates. If it doesn’t, even the upward-revised estimates are too high.
The drift is up. The Fed is hawkish. The bar is higher than usual heading into earnings season and the cost of being wrong just went up. For the first time in five quarters, beating expectations may not be enough to beat the rate environment.