JPMorgan earned $16.5 billion. Goldman earned $5.6 billion. Wells Fargo earned $5.25 billion. Citigroup earned $5.8 billion.
Combined net income: $33.15 billion. Three of the four stocks closed lower.
The trading bonanza arrived exactly as previewed. Markets desks printed. IB fees surged. Every bank beat EPS. And the market sold three of them anyway, because Q1 was never the question. Q2 is.
The Scorecard
| GS | JPM | WFC | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $17.55 +6.6% | $5.94 +9.0% | $1.60 +1.3% | $3.06 +15.5% |
| Revenue | $17.2B +1.7% | $50.5B +2.8% | $21.5B −1.5% | $24.6B +4.6% |
| Trading | Mixed Eq +27% FICC −10% |
Record Markets beat |
+19% CIB +4% |
+19% $7.2B — FICC +13%, Eq +39% |
| The Tell | Q2 guide −22% $13.75 EPS |
NII cut $1.5B $104.5B → $103B |
Rev miss NIM −13bps |
ROTCE 13.1% Best rev in a decade |
| Stock | −1.9% | −3.0% | −2.1% | +6.0% |
EPS and revenue surprise shown vs. consensus estimates. Stock move is session close.
JPMorgan: $16.5 Billion and a Guidance Cut
JPMorgan printed the largest quarterly profit in American banking history. Revenue $50.5 billion, up 10% year-over-year. EPS $5.94, beating by $0.49. NII $25.5 billion, up 9%. Investment banking fees up 28%. Record markets revenue.
The stock fell 3%.
Because Dimon cut full-year NII guidance from $104.5 billion to $103 billion. A $1.5 billion trim isn't catastrophic — it's 1.4%. But the direction matters more than the magnitude. In yesterday's Goldman piece, I flagged JPM's NII guidance as the tell. It told. The market is repricing the interest rate path — if Iran talks lead somewhere (WTI crashed 7% to $92 today on deal hopes), then the elevated rate environment that's been padding bank NII starts to erode.
Credit costs were $2.5 billion with a $191 million net reserve build. That's manageable. But Dimon didn't sugarcoat the macro: he flagged "considerable turbulence" and "significant" geopolitical risks. From a CEO who typically calibrates every word, that's not boilerplate.
Citigroup: The One That Worked
Citi beat EPS by 15.5%. Revenue beat by 4.6%. Best quarterly revenue in a decade. ROTCE 13.1% — highest since 2021 and above their own 10-11% target. Stock up 6%.
Why did the same market that sold JPM's $16.5 billion profit buy Citi's $5.8 billion?
Because Citi is selling a different product. JPM, Goldman, and Wells Fargo are selling cycle — and the cycle peaked in Q1. Citi is selling transformation. Fraser's restructuring is delivering: Services revenue up 17%, Markets up 19%, Banking up 15%, all five segments growing. The efficiency ratio dropped to 58.1%. The Russia divestiture added $4 billion to CET1.
When you beat because the market was volatile, you get one good quarter. When you beat because you restructured the business, you get a re-rating. That's why Citi rallied and everyone else didn't.
"We are off to an exceptionally strong start in 2026, with revenue up 14% and net income growing 42%."
— Jane Fraser, Citigroup Q1 2026 earnings call
That said, Citi returned $7.4 billion to shareholders in Q1 on $5.8 billion in net income — a 134% payout ratio. CET1 dropped to 12.7%. The capital return pace is unsustainable and only worked because of the Russia sale's one-time CET1 boost. Watch whether Q2 buybacks slow.
Wells Fargo: The Revenue Miss Nobody Wanted
WFC barely beat EPS ($1.60 vs. $1.58) and missed revenue ($21.45 billion vs. $21.77 billion). The stock fell 2.1%. Net interest margin compressed 13 basis points to 2.47%.
In a quarter where every other bank found trading revenue to offset NII pressure, Wells Fargo couldn't. Its CIB is the smallest of the four, and its NII dependence is the highest. When net interest income growth decelerates and you don't have a Goldman-sized trading desk to compensate, the math doesn't work.
The one positive: credit remains clean. Net charge-off ratio stable at 45 basis points. Wells maintained full-year NII guidance at ~$50 billion. But maintaining guidance when everyone else is cutting feels less like confidence and more like the cut just hasn't come yet.
The Oil Connection
WTI crude fell 7% to $92.34 today — the lowest since the ceasefire — on reports the US and Iran are considering further talks. The same optimism that crashed oil is exactly what makes JPM's NII guidance cut logical: if peace is possible, rates come down, and the elevated NII environment banks have been riding starts to fade.
The market is doing two things simultaneously:
- Pricing in Hormuz resolution (oil to $92, S&P to 6,967 — wiping out all Iran war losses)
- Repricing the post-crisis bank earnings path (lower rates = lower NII = lower bank earnings)
This is the paradox: peace is good for the market but bad for bank earnings. The volatility that juiced Q1 trading desks goes away. The elevated rates that padded NII normalize. The four biggest banks just reported the last easy quarter they may see for a while.
What Comes Next
Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report tomorrow (April 15). BAC's NII guidance is the next domino — if they also trim, the pattern is set. MS's wealth management margins will show whether the Hormuz crisis spooked high-net-worth clients into cash.
Then earnings season broadens. UnitedHealth (Apr 21), Nucor (Apr 27), LLY (Apr 30). The bank results just told you the framework: beat the quarter, cut the guide. Any company riding a temporary tailwind from the crisis will face the same verdict. Q1 was the peak. The market already knows.
S&P 500: 6,967 (+1.18%). WTI: $92.34 (−7.0%). Brent: $95.34 (−4.0%). JPM −3.0%, WFC −2.1%, C +6.0%. BAC and MS report April 15.